A new series and a new beginning...Bull run to continue ?!

After the remarkable July series, it is time to look fresh at the markets for the next series.

Bulls having won considerably in the July series, looks like will be taking the upperhand for the initial few days and should push Nifty to year high and above.

As mentioned earlier, 4965 is the maximum level that I am currently looking at and this needs to be reviewed as the series progresses.

Again most of the time Nifty was hovering around 4444 levels and that, followed by 4380 are the key levels to watch out for.

Resistance levels : 4605, 4630, 4659

Support levels : 4550, 4537, 4502

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Monthly Chart - July 2009

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Bulls to regain control for the expiry !!

Bears had a good day yesterday and it looked like bulls were all too tired to push Nifty up further for the expiry.

But overall, bulls still seem to have a strong control for this expiry and the likely level of expiry is around 4560 or higher.

4527 has been established as a strong resistance and Nifty is unlikely to move up that level in the morning session and similarly 4474 level is a good support and Nifty is unlikely to fall below that also.

So it does look like Nifty will be hovering between 4474 and 4527 before bulls take control and charge it for a higher close.

Resistance levels : 4527, 4564, 4605

Support levels : 4475, 4444

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View remains intact..Nifty to test further highs ?!

Another doji yesterday and the general view has been created as to Nifty is struggling to move past 4600 levels.

Overall the pattern still remains extremely bullish and can push Nifty all the way to test 4700 levels.

In case if the expected up move doesnt happen today, then also it looks like there will be a strong up move tomorrow for the expiry. The expiry strike will be more or less clear at the end of the day today.

Resistance levels : 4585, 4605, 4630, 4659

Support levels : 4550, 4537, 4502

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A rest day and bull run to continue ?!

Yesterday market made a new high for the july month series and formed a doji at the top. It looks like a pause before the next significant move and there are just three sessions remaining including today for this month series to end.

Looking at the overall picture, the expiry should favour only bulls and bears have been completely trapped for this series.

A move to test the year high at 4693 is also in the cards and looks like there will be a test of 4659 levels within 2 days.

It is again better to wait and watch today and at the end of the day tomorrow position oneself for a bullish expiry.

Resistance levels : 4605, 4630, 4659

Support levels : 4550, 4502, 4485

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Two consequtive weekly high close. Will be break 4700 levels soon ?!

The previous session also broke all resistance level and to reiterate what was written earlier

" We are standing very close to the crucial resistance level of 4551 where there was also a powerful bull trap. If that level is breached and NIFTY closes higher than that, as written in earlier posts our view is going to be extremely bullish and we are going to see a much higher move before expiry"

Now that the close is higher than 4551 and on the weekly charts it is a continuation of the piercing line pattern, the markets look extremely bullish at this stage. Only on a break and close below 4444 levels will bring in a different view.

Resistance levels : 4605, 4630, 4657

Support levels : 4502, 4485, 4465, 4444

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Are we heading much higher before the expiry ?!

Yesterday again the markets opened very strong and did sustain till the end of the day and closed almost at day's high completely breaking all the resistance levels.

We are standing very close to the crucial resistance level of 4551 where there was also a powerful bull trap. If that level is breached and NIFTY closes higher than that, as written in earlier posts our view is going to be extremely bullish and we are going to see a much higher move before expiry.

Resistance levels : 4551, 4599

Support levels : 4502, 4485, 4444

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Sell off seen yesterday. Will that continue ?!

It was a very strong sell off which started much earlier in the day completely trapping bulls above 4550 levels.

It now looks like all the conventional patterns are deliberately broken, first a failed head and shoulders pattern around 4000 levels and this time a failed 'W' breakout around 4500 levels.

It looks like there will be a move to retest 4260 levels soon if NIFTY is unable to move past 4444 levels.

Now that the bull trap at 4550 level is established any move above that will change the view as extremely bullish which is unlikely to happen this week.

Resistance levels : 4444, 4469, 4502

Support levels : 4342, 4315, 4303

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View remains the same..Markets waiting before taking the next big move

Yesterday was a clear consolidation and markets are waiting right now before taking the next big move.

Most of what was written yesterday still remains the same and if NIFTY has to move up strongly a move to throw away the weak bulls is also not ruled out and a retest of 4412 levels momentarily is anticipated.

The key levels remain the same.

Resistance levels : 4493, 4526, 4551

Support levels : 4444, 4412

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Two consequtive strong close, but not yet ready for the big up move ?!

Yesterday again was a strong trend day and closed almost at day's high. On its way up there have been powerful bear traps made at the level of 4445 and NIFTY managed to close above 4500 levels.

As said earlier, a close above 4275 would push NIFTY to 4475 and the target is reached.

Clearly now almost all the neavy weights are geared up for the next up move, so also NIFTY. A breakout of the 'W' pattern which is also a bullish indicator.

Having seen all this, it is difficult to take a bearish stance now. Now that the run up has been too fast, NIFTY has to cool off a day or two if at all this bull run has to continue, a bearish move atleast to throw the weak bulls out before making the next one.

A move either side could be equally justified and so it is prudent to wait for a two or three days to see how this spans out before making any trading calls.

Resistance levels : 4526, 4551, 4582

Support levels : 4465, 4444, 4412

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A strong up move last friday. Will that sustain ?!

On friday, I had written that there was a strong trap at 4275 and nullifying that will push markets further up.

"After looking at the intraday pattern, it is very clear now that a powerful bull trap has been made at 4275 levels and this markets might struggle to move past that level. If that trap is nullified and NIFTY closes above that, then it is going to run up all the way to 4475 levels soon."

On friday, market opened around 4275 levels and there was no looking back. It closed almost at the day's high and it looks like the momentum will continue today also.

Resistance levels : 4430, 4450, 4475

Support levels : 4342, 4315

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Markets consolidated yesterday. What next ?

Markets consolidated and formed a perfect doji yesterday as predicted. Will this continue today also?

After looking at the intraday pattern, it is very clear now that a powerful bull trap has been made at 4275 levels and this markets might struggle to move past that level. If that trap is nullified and NIFTY closes above that, then it is going to run up all the way to 4475 levels soon.

But currently the pattern doesnt suggest that. There might be a strong pull back atleast of the order of 2.25% to retest the levels of 4135 soon.

It is again clearly a cat on the wall situation and I dont have a strong view right now as had been for the past few sessions.

Resistance levels : 4283, 4314

Support levels : 4190, 4165, 4135

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Nifty might consolidate a day or two at this level...

Markets had full steam to run up to 4222 levels yesterday after closing almost near 4117 levels the day before.

Now that it has reached my target of 4222, I would rather sit and watch for the next big move and the expectation is that markets might also consolidate at this level for a day or two before making the next big move either side.

Resistance levels : 4283, 4314

Support levels : 4222, 4190, 4165

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The expected bounce happened yesterday. What next?!

The expected bounce happened yesterday and Nifty also closed almost at the level of 4117.

Will this move intensify today and reach 4222 levels mentioned earlier?

It looks so, but then we need to be cautious also, as today everyone would be looking for an upmove rather than a strong correction.

The 4045 level mentioned has provided a strong support and yesterday nifty did not slip below that. If that is broken today, then weakness will set in.

Resistance levels : 4140, 4165, 4202, 4222

Support levels : 4085, 4045

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Nifty to see the expected bounce today !!

After testing 4000 levels, the view is maintained that Nifty can give a strong bounce anytime and it looks like today is the day.

SGX Nifty is already at 4020 levels at the time of writing this and a gap up above 4000 levels would have immediately trapped all the bears of yesterday's session and a rise today is expected to see an allround short cover to happen.

It looks like the up move if sustained today up to 4117 levels, could see Nifty moving to 4222 by tomorrow.

Resistance levels : 4045, 4085, 4117

Support levels : 3966, 3930

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4000 levels tested. Market to bounce early this week ?!

Markets tested 4000 levels on friday in the late evening sell off and closed a shade above that mark. Now that the whole world is looking down at targets of 3800, 3600 and so on, will it be time for the markets to give a surprise bounce till 4222, 4300 levels?

This could happen anytime this week and there will be a sudden upsurge in the market.

Resistance levels : 4045, 4085, 4117

Support levels : 3966, 3930

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Doji in the last session. Nifty to turn bullish after testing 4000 levels ?!

Yesterday was a perfect doji and nothing else has changed.

The view is maintained as given yesterday that NIFTY might also show a strong bounce after testing 4000 levels in the next one or two sessions.

Now that NIFTY has made lows very close to 4000 levels, it is better to buy on dips and ride the rally till 4300-4400 levels next week.

The key levels also remain the same.

Resistance levels : 4117, 4140, 4156

Support levels : 4045, 3998

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Nifty might turn bullish after testing 4000 levels ?!

Yesterday's close broke the range on the downside and has also significantly closed below the 50 DMA. Though this indicates strong bearishness, it is not yet time for a downtrend to begin.

The view is maintained that NIFTY might also show a strong bounce after testing 4000 levels in the next one or two sessions.

It will remain volatile as long as 4000 level is not breached.

Resistance levels : 4117, 4140, 4156

Support levels : 4045, 3998

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A very meagre bounce yesterday..More downside to be seen today?!

Yesterday was a volatile day and though it ended positive, the bounce that we saw is very meagre and this is certainly pointing to more weakness than strength.

It looks like there will be a test of 4085 levels if 4150 level is broken and seems like a good possibility. Most of the key levels remain the same.

As mentioned yesterday, now if the last support level of 4085 is broken, then a momentary test of 3998 levels is possible in the short term, from where we might see a good bounce instead of further downside.

Resistance levels : 4222, 4259, 4291

Support levels : 4165, 4117, 4085, 4045

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Bears completely took upperhand. what next ?!

Bears had a tremendous victory on the day of the budget and the break of 4340 levels mentioned yesterday clearly gave them a very strong upperhand.

It has completely broken all the support levels and also trapped many bulls intraday above 4450 levels.

Now if the last support level of 4085 is broken, then a momentary test of 3998 levels is possible in the short term, from where we might see a good bounce instead of further downside. The view is neutral for the day.

Resistance levels : 4196, 4222, 4259, 4291

Support levels : 4117, 4085, 4045

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Will the bullish breakout sustain ?!

Nifty on friday gave a clear breakout from 4407 levels and closed high. After two failed attempts to cross the 20 DMA levels, market has given a breakout.

In any case, a close above 4450, the most crucial level that we have been discussing for more than 15 days, is required for the bullish trend to continue.

Another important thing is that friday's close is so planned that, both bulls and bears have equal hope. Though there was a breakout, bears were still not threatened enough to cover their shorts and bulls are hopeful of the big up move. So from this stage it is going to be a great victory for either one of the party and a close above or below 4450 level will decide the same.

4340 has been established as a strong support and a break of that in the near term would give bears a very strong upperhand.

Resistance levels : 4450, 4489, 4518

Support levels : 4407, 4378, 4340

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Swinging in range and not moving either side..Will a breakout happen soon ?!

It was another day where NIFTY gave wild swings in both direction. A decisive trend is not getting established and the view remains the same with a bearish bias.

It is again prudent to wait for a breakout either side, now that the range has become tight, a breakout involves moving out of 4407 and 4250.

Below 4306, we can see some weakness to set in today.

Resistance levels : 4367, 4382, 4407

Support levels : 4306, 4283, 4251, 4222

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An upmove in the second half of the last session. Where is NIFTY heading?!

From the key support level of 4251 given yesterday, there was an unexpected bounce to retest the then day's high and the crucial resistance level of the 4331.

The close of 4341 doesnt impart bullishness as it is exactly at the mid point of the previous bear day and has not pierced it. A higher close of 4430 is required to confirm the bullishness.

There has already been a two times retest of the 20 DMA and it currently stays at 4418 levels. It looks like NIFTY is getting into a range between 4222 and 4450 levels. We need to wait for a break and close below/above these levels to decide on a trend and so it might be safe to play the range or wait and watch for the breakout eitherside.

Resistance levels : 4382, 4406, 4450

Support levels : 4306, 4283, 4251, 4222

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Three day bearish reversal pattern after retesting 20 DMA. Will it test 50 DMA soon?!

It has been a clear three day reversal pattern after testing the 20 DMA and the strong resistance level of 4450.

It was a very clear down trend almost the whole of yesterday and having broken strong support levels, this reversal is quite significant.

It has the potential to move on to test the 50 DMA which is currently at 4080 and on extrapolation comes to around 4120 in another two days, which happens to be another key support level for NIFTY.

4347 has been established as the current strong resistance level and in any case this market should not cross that level for it to reach the target of 4120.

Resistance levels : 4331, 4347, 4382

Support levels : 4251, 4222, 4197, 4156

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