Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Will the bullish undercurrent lose steam or is there a last leg up ??


NIFTY touched 3300 levels and closed comfortably above 3250 in the last session. The low made on 6th April was the close made the previous session which saw a gain of 4.92%. So even in the last session, most of the end-of-day bears are still held captive. 
Though this rally looks over extended the undercurrent is very much bullish and from the low of 2500, this looks like the third leg of the upmove which can relatively be much ferocious than the previous ones.  The 200 DMA also looks near and can be breached by another 5.7% move in NIFTY.
It looks like the last leg up should be still very much intact and the negative sentiment may not drift NIFTY to a level below 3140 in the near term. The last leg started breaking the 3085 barrier on the upside. Reversal will be confirmed only on a move below that and if that happens then as mentioned in the earlier post it becomes a level playing field and would be better to sit and watch.
Having said all this, at the time of writing DOW is already down by 2.3% and is filling the gap made three days ago. In any case, I still hold the view that the 3000 and below strike puts that were already bought earlier at lower levels might go worthless for this expiry. The next two days of trade remaining in this week is also crucial and might indicate if the bull run will continue or bears already waiting to take revenge will start taking the upperhand slowly

-
Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

No comments: