Thursday, December 31, 2009

Monthly Chart - Decemeber 2009


A new year high close of 5235 for the expiry ?!

Nifty has been hovering in a range for the entire month and now it is the last day of the december series.

The pattern favours bulls to a great extent and it is bears who are trapped in the last week. Nifty has been waiting to breakout of the 5200 barrier and it looks like it might be able to do so today and possibly close around 5235 levels.

Options data as far as volume PCR is concerned is neutral. There has been massive unwinding of 40% in 5200 put with a large turnover and some increase in 5200 call. This points to some sort of bearishness, but then bulls having established a strong upperhand might be able to push higher today.

Resistance levels : 5197, 5235, 5265

Support levels : 5161, 5145, 5128

Happy Trading

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Another flat day.. Will there be a new year high close today ?!

Nifty has been hovering around the upperband now and the moment there is a breakout of the range, a pull back immediately follows.

It is one more session to go for this expiry. The build up in near strike puts and calls are all equally poised and it is not giving any decisive indication.

A move towards 5295 levels is imminent and it is better to rollover longs to the next series, if that does not happen in december as a strong breakout is expected any time soon.

Resistance levels : 5197, 5217, 5235

Support levels : 5161, 5145, 5128

Happy Trading

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Range high reached and ready for a breakout ?!

Nifty made a strong up move towards the end to reach a new year high and closed a shade below that. 
Only on rare occasions, Nifty has made a new high on the expiry week and the general tendency is to confine within the range and give an up move and close near the already made high for the expiry.

This time around the majority of the move came after accumulation of the call, there is also a strong possibility to make new high moves before the expiry and even a test of 5295 levels is not ruled out.

Resistance levels : 5197, 5223, 5235

Support levels : 5161, 5145, 5128

Happy Trading

Thursday, December 24, 2009

A gravity defying move to kick start the momentum finally !!

Yesterday's move completely engulfed almost the past two weeks down move. For a long time the expectation is that momentum has to kick in with increased volume and there will be a rally till 5300.

The indications were that the markets may not fall below 4940 levels and a bounce was expected from the range bottom because of heavy accumulation in 4900 puts, a sharp upmove of this magnitude was not foreseen because of the accumulation seen in 5000, 5100, 5200 calls.

Yesterday 5000 and 5100 calls saw heavy unwinding and 5200 call did not see much of unwinding. Since it was the turn of call buyers who got benefitted, there could be an upmove to test the range high of 5182 and also pierce that and test 5223 levels this time, now that the momentum has been kick started.

Resistance levels : 5162, 5183, 5223

Support levels : 5115, 5084, 5067

Happy Trading

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Arbitrage game...Markets to move in a tight range till expiry ?!

Markets gave a bounce yesterday after testing the lower Bollinger band. 

The moment markets reach the bottom of the band, the accumulation in 4900 puts has increased and the OI stands at 60 Lakhs. 5000 calls also added more to the OI and it now stands at 71 Lakhs.

This gives an indication that this entire month seems to be that of range play and more of arbitrage is being done by selling calls and puts and moving the markets in a tight range and letting the time value erode in the options.

Given this scenario, it is highly unlikely that the range of 4940 will be broken and even if that happens there is a higher possibility of Nifty to rise back into the range.  

Resistance levels : 4996, 5015

Support levels : 4970, 4957

Happy Trading

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Bears to push markets further out of the band ?!

Yesterday markets broke another crucial support level of 4980 and moved towards 4940 levels.

The accumulation in 5000 calls is very heavy and increased almost by 50%. Going by the trend, there were initially major writing in 5200 call, followed by 5100 and yesterday it was the turn of 5000 call.

There were some accumulation in the 4900 and 4800 puts, but not to the extent that it can prevent a correction till 4900 levels. Also the volume PCR is at 0.81, favouring bears to a good extent.

Bears have clearly taken the upperhand and given the scenario that market is testing Bollinger band low now, any further break of 4940 levels would bring in weakness and can push markets to test 4900 levels and beyond.

Resistance levels : 4957, 4980, 4996

Support levels : 4925, 4898, 4882

Happy Trading

Monday, December 21, 2009

Markets testing range bottom. Will there be more sell-off ?!

On friday, markets broke the 5000 barrier and tested and closed near the crucial support of 4985 levels.

Looking at the unwinding in 5000 puts, and the heavy build up seen in 5100 and 5200 calls,  it now points to more of a downside move. 

Also there was a powerful intraday bull trap around the previous close level of 5042 and now that will be a hard level to cross for this series.

The build up in 4900 and 4800 put are also reasonably higher and so there might not be any major sell-off as of now.

Resistance levels : 5014, 5030, 5043

Support levels : 4980, 4957, 4942

Happy Trading

Friday, December 18, 2009

Longest range play in recent times...Will markets come out of range soon?!

Yesterday was another doji day and bears did not push markets beyond 5000 levels.

The build up in both the near strike calls and puts are ruling very high and the moment markets reach the lower end of the band, the build up in 5000 puts increase which pushes the markets back into the range. This was happening for quite some time in the calls as well.

The situation currently is that both 5100 and 5200 calls have accumulated more than 70 lakhs in OI and it is very hard for the markets to make any up move beyond 5087 levels. At the same time 5000 puts have also accumulated around 61 lakhs and so a break is also not happening too soon.

It is tough for the markets to remain in a tight range for a longer period of time, but given the scenario it is better to wait for a decisive breakout also. The key levels remain the same.

Resistance levels : 5053, 5067, 5087

Support levels : 5018, 4985, 4970

Happy Trading

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Bears slowly taking upperhand. Markets to test further lows ?!

Markets tested the range bottom of 5020 levels yesterday towards the end of the session also.

Looking at the build up in 5100 and 5200 calls, it looks like market is slowly beginning to be controlled by bears. There is unwinding seen in 5000 puts which also is favouring bears and the volume PCR has increased to 1.14.

All these indications are pointing to the fact that bears are slowly taking the upperhand and are likely to push markets to test 4970 levels also and any break of that would push Nifty further towards 4900 levels.

Resistance levels : 5053, 5067, 5087

Support levels : 5018, 4985, 4970

Happy Trading

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

With 5100 pivot, an 80 point move either side ?!

Markets corrected significantly yesterday and tested another crucial support of 5020. 

The volume PCR is ruling at 1.05, not favouring a bullish or a bearish move. There has been unseen build up in both 5100 and 5200 call and though some unwinding was seen in 5000 puts, the OI at 55 lakhs is still huge.

As of now, it looks like markets to swing with 5100 as the pivot and an 80 point move either side.  Any break below 4985 would impart bearishness at this stage.

As written yesterday, it is better to wait for a decisive breakout before entering into any position.

Resistance levels : 5053, 5074, 5096

Support levels : 5018, 5003, 4985

Happy Trading

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Intra-day play continues. Is it high time for an upside breakout ?!

It has been a continuous range-bound play for the past two weeks and the bands are becoming narrower with each day with historical volatility also shrinking and is ruling almost at year low. 

A breakout on any side with volatility expansion and price move is expected anytime during this week and looking at how 5080 is strongly held and also the pattern, implies an upside breakout.

During intraday, there has been hectic activity seen in 5000 puts and 5200 calls. At one point in time 5000 puts were ruling at 70 lakhs open interest and towards the end of the day, it changed to 70 lakhs for 5200 calls. 

It is better to wait and watch for the decisive breakout to happen before initiating new positions.

Resistance levels : 5120, 5135, 5155

Support levels : 5084, 5067, 5052

Happy Trading

Monday, December 14, 2009

A move to test the lower end of the range ?!

Nifty did hit the high of 5182 on friday and fell back into range.

The accumulation in 5200 call has increased almost exponentially (OI is at 66 Lakhs) and it has been established as a very hard ceiling now.

It now looks like Nifty might move to test the lower end of the range at 5050, 5020 in the next couple of sessions. Since the accumulation in 5000 puts is still around 55 lakhs, it is not foreseen that this market will break 5000 on the downside.

It looks like after the retest of 5020, it will again fall into the range and move on to test 5150 levels.

Resistance levels : 5135, 5155, 5173

Support levels : 5084, 5067, 5052

Happy Trading

Friday, December 11, 2009

Nifty to reach new high levels, but might be difficult to sustain ?!

Yesterday markets again showed signs of a breakout, but was still confined between the second support and resistance levels of 5082 and 5146.

It now looks like the market has strength to reach the ceiling of 5182 levels and looking at the accumulation in 5200 calls, it might be difficult for the markets to crack 5200 levels and there are good chances of markets to fall back into range again.

The volume PCR has reached 0.98 which shows lot of activity has been on the call side and markets may not be able to sustain to the new high levels also. It could require some more consolidation and range moves before making a strong rally.

Resistance levels : 5146, 5162, 5182

Support levels : 5115, 5103, 5082

Happy Trading

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Falling back into consolidation before the upside breakout ?!

Yesterday markets did not move higher after the strong bounce seen the day before. It looks like market is still getting into range bound mode and is looking for more of consolidation before giving the expected up move.

The accumulation in 5200 call is also quite huge and it stands at 51 lakhs and this could be one of the reason as to why market is not able to break the 5150 barrier and move towards new high soon.

5000 puts OI stands at 59 lakhs. This points out the fact that there may not be any significant correction beyond 5050 levels.

As of now, the historical volatility is also low and this points to the fact that after a few sessions there will be a strong breakout and pattern-wise it points to a breakout on the upperside.

Resistance levels : 5131, 5146, 5182

Support levels : 5101, 5082, 5052

Happy Trading

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Bulls to push markets higher after the strong bounce ?!

Yesterday markets saw the strong bounce and also closed almost at day high. 

The overall pattern suggests another bullish move and market is likely to move towards the new high. 

5107 should act as a strong support going forward and markets will be under the control of bulls as long as this level is not broken.

There has been accumulation seen in the near strike puts and overall, the bullish undercurrent should push markets to further highs the near term.

Resistance levels : 5182, 5210 

Support levels : 5125, 5107

Happy Trading

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

A retest of 20 DMA. Nifty to give a strong bounce ?!

Nifty could not sustain to 5100 levels yesterday and tested the strong support of 5052 levels. 

Now that the retest of 20 DMA is complete, it looks like Nifty can give a strong bounce anytime and move towards the new high.

The volumes have been significantly lower on days when Nifty is correcting. The build up in 5000 puts has been the largest and so market is likely to give a bounce on any down move below 5050.

Resistance levels : 5082, 5108, 5131

Support levels : 5052, 5033, 5005

Happy Trading

Monday, December 7, 2009

Consolidation continues. Ready to reach new high anytime ?!

On Friday, markets again made an attempt to scale 5150 levels, but could not sustain to that. The consolidation is continuing with markets slowly getting ready for the final up move.

The volume was very low when the market had the red day on friday and the next time markets make an attempt to scale 5150 levels, it would be able to break the barrier and reach 5180, 5210 levels immediately.

As of now it looks more like a buy on dips market.

Resistance levels : 5153, 5182, 5210

Support levels : 5082, 5066, 5052

Happy Trading

Friday, December 4, 2009

Doji again...Markets getting into consolidation mode ?!

Yesterday markets made an attempt to reach new high, but could not sustain to that level and finally folded into yet another doji day.

The accumulation was quite heavy in 5200 and 5300 calls yesterday. So it now looks like there should be some more consolidation before markets can get the push to break 5200 barrier.

It could be yet another doji day with markets testing 5060 levels and getting strong support there.

Resistance levels : 5147, 5169, 5182

Support levels : 5107, 5082, 5066

Happy Trading

Thursday, December 3, 2009

All set to cross 5200 levels today ?!

Yesterday was a perfect doji day and almost resembles a grave-stone doji. This has given enough confidence to the bears that this rally is coming to an end and enough shorts were built which is indicated by Nifty going into discount.

It now looks like the market is all set to move much higher, to test 5200 levels also today. This will be mostly triggered by the short squeeze when Nifty moves past 5150.

Today is the day when the expected momentum is likely to start with heavy volumes pushing markets higher and also a possibly higher close for the year. 

Resistance levels : 5147, 5182, 5210

Support levels : 5112, 5078, 5066

Happy Trading

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Momentum to kick in. Market likely to test new year high !

Markets had the highest close yesterday in a month and the intraday pattern suggests extreme bullishness and signs of momentum kicking in.

It is likely to test the year high of 5182 levels in a couple of sessions, with a high possibility of reaching the target today itself.

There has also been powerful base built on the journey up and 5060 should offer a strong support going forward for a few more sessions.

Resistance levels : 5142, 5159, 5182

Support levels : 5107, 5081, 5063  

Happy Trading

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Markets to stay around 5050 levels before gaining further momentum

Yesterday market had a strong gap up opening and was pushed higher to test the key level of 5050, where there was a long tussle earlier between the bulls and bears.

It now looks like more of a consolidation with 5050 as the pivot before bulls pushing it higher. 

Volumes are low on green days and need to increase for further momentum and it might take a few sessions before that happens.

Resistance levels : 5053, 5066, 5078

Support levels : 5018, 5003, 4985

Happy Trading

Monday, November 30, 2009

Back to 4950, 5050 game between bulls and bears

Nifty on friday corrected significantly intraday and bulls were then able to push it towards the end to reach almost 4950 levels. 

4950 has been mentioned as the level of consolidation and the expected momentum is likely to get established and push the markets further up in the short term.

Any break and close above 5050 on the upside will be the indicator of a strong up move and till that point in time, Nifty could also hover around 4865 - 5050 levels. 

A break and close below 4845 will bring in bearishness which is unlikely to happen in the short term.

Resistance levels : 5007, 5023, 5050

Support levels : 4924, 4896, 4865  

Happy Trading

Saturday, November 28, 2009

Update on all expiry views

December 2009
Predicted Move: BULLISH
Predicted Close: 5235
Actual Move: BULLISH
Actual Close: 5201
November 2009
Predicted Move: BULLISH
Predicted Close: 5159
Actual Move: BEARISH
Actual Close: 5006
October 2009
Predicted Move: BEARISH
Predicted Close: 4734
Actual Move: BEARISH
Actual Close: 4751
September 2009
Predicted Move: BULLISH
Predicted Close: 5020
Actual Move: BULLISH
Actual Close: 4987
August 2009
Predicted Move: BEARISH
Predicted Close: 4636
Actual Move: BULLISH
Actual Close: 4688
July 2009
Predicted Move: BULLISH
Predicted Close: 4560 or higher
Actual Move: BULLISH
Actual Close: 4571
June 2009
Expiry value updated in the comment section
Predicted Move: BEARISH
Predicted Close: 4337
Actual Move: BEARISH
Actual Close: 4242
May 2009
On vacation. Expiry view not available.
April 2009
Predicted Move: BULLISH
Predicted Close: Not clear
Actual Move: BULLISH
Actual Close: 3474
March 2009
Predicted Move: BULLISH
Predicted Close: 3075-3100
Actual Move: BULLISH
Actual Close: 3082

Friday, November 27, 2009

A totally bear dominated expiry and the beginning of a new series..What next?

Contrary to the expectation of bulls pushing Nifty to a new high and close for the expiry, it was the turn of bears that took complete control and pushed Nifty even to sub-5000 levels.

Now that a new series has begun, lot of pessimism has already set in. It still doesnt look like a straight fall from the levels that we have seen. Around 4885 levels, as mentioned earlier, should provide support and it is likely that markets will consolidate around 4950 levels for a final push towards a new high. The reasoning is again that there has not been widespread increase in volume and momentum has not yet kicked in.

It is better to wait and watch for a few more sessions before making any directional bet.

Resistance levels : 5023, 5050, 5066

Support levels : 4950, 4924, 4882

Happy Trading

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Monthly Chart - November 2009


A 5159 close ?! Will bulls be able to give the final push for the expiry ?!!

Yesterday's pattern almost looks like a mirror image of day before yesterday's pattern and Nifty also made attempt to test new high for the series and has also closed above 5100 levels for the second time in this series.

The PCR has increased to 1.33, denoting more activity on the put side yesterday than the calls and there was widespread unwinding seen in 5100 calls and also some accumulation in the 5100 puts. FIIs have bought index futures worth around 400 cr.

At the time of writing SGX Nifty is testing the crucial resistance of 5080 and has already set the bearish tone (falsely ?) for the day.

Given all this scenario, if the entire series is taken into consideration, bulls have established a strong upperhand and bears have been waiting for a strong pull back throughout this series. The undercurrent is still very much bullish and it is highly likely that bulls will take complete control towards the end of the session and can also push Nifty to a close around 5159 levels.

Resistance levels : 5121, 5138, 5159

Support levels : 5080, 5063, 5050

Happy Trading

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Another neutral day before bulls can charge for the expiry tomorrow ?!

Yesterday markets saw heightened intraday volatility and the key level of 5060 was broken twice before bulls took control again and pushed it higher.

There was a huge increase in the OI for 5100 puts, and there is also a slight increase in the OI for 5100 calls. Both 5000 put and call have shed OI. So does it all point to the action to revolve around 5100 more than 5000?

It is also being established (falsely?!) that 5100 is a tough nut to crack and may be today also there could be a neutral or even a bearish move to substantiate this theory and tomorrow it could be the turn of the bulls to charge and look for a close higher than 5100.

FIIs have been net sellers of 250 cr in index futures and net buyers of 100 cr in index options. This does not give any strong indication of the direction for these two days, but overall it could be the turn of bulls to push markets higher from whereever it is left today.

Resistance levels : 5111, 5127, 5140

Support levels : 5080, 5063, 5050

Happy Trading

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Markets to stay under the control of bulls with heightened volatility ?!

It was a decisive victory for the bulls yesterday and they were able to hold the markets above another key level of 5080 for almost the whole session right after an hour of trading.

The late entrant bears of friday and also the bears in the opening session of yesterday are all trapped and this could see the markets reaching a higher levels of 5127 or even 5140 amidst heightened intraday volatility, but it could also be difficult to sustain to these levels if the move happens and a doji close is also a possibility for the day.

A move below 5060 is not expected and it is still a buy if that happens for this series.
Overall, market is still under the control of bulls with a neutral view for the day.

The PCR is at 1.21, again due to the increase in the put activity yesterday. FIIs have been net buyers of 400 cr in index futures and 300 cr in index options. They have also sold stock futures worth 300 cr. Overall this points to bullishness, but need to wait for two more trading days before concluding if 5100 calls will expire in the money.

Resistance levels : 5127, 5140

Support levels : 5085, 5063  

Happy Trading

Monday, November 23, 2009

Bears completely trapped... Bulls to control the expiry and Nifty all set to move higher?!

Friday, it finally proved that the buy on dips strategy worked out well. The intraday pattern suggests that bears have been completely trapped and it is bulls who will decide this expiry move.

Now that the weak bulls have been thrown out of the system and also new shorts have been built, it is possible that during this week, markets can move up without much of retracement also and it is also possible to test the high of 5182 in the remaining four days triggered by short squeeze.

The PCR has come down to 1.10 and though this is neutral, there has been a wide spread activity in 5100 call on friday. FII data analysis seems mixed. They have been net sellers both in the equity as well as index futures on friday and have largely accumulated options worth around Rs. 800 crores. 

Overall it looks like an expiry controlled by bulls and we should wait for a couple of more sessions to ascertain on the call strike which would expiry in the money.

Resistance levels : 5079, 5111, 5127 

Support levels : 5045, 5024, 5007  

Happy Trading

Friday, November 20, 2009

A strong correction yesterday before the rally next week ?!

Yesterday's pull back, a very strong one has raised concerns on the overall rally and it is beginning to convince a major section of bears that the rally did not have any legs and could not sustain.

Also 5075 has been shown as a strong resistance which cannot be penetrated easily. 

In addition to this the PCR has also come down to 1.32 from 1.50 levels and there has been a large amount of unwinding seen in majority of the puts yesterday. FII's are net sellers of roughly 700 crores in index futures.

Does this all point to more of a correction coming in? Overall it doesnt seem so. The very fact that Nifty was pushed to levels beyond 4950 and having let it stay above that level for a longer period with lower volumes indicate that there is more upside to this rally and as of now it is again a buy on dips. Only on a break below 4885 would large sell off set in and it looks remote currently.

Resistance levels : 5007, 5024, 5045

Support levels : 4969, 4945, 4924

Happy Trading

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Bulls getting stronger !! Will they be able to push Nifty to a new high ?!!

Bulls are getting stronger on each consolidation and they are still holding the 5035 fort.

The resistance at 5074 level has been tested multiple times and any retest of that level will straight away push Nifty to 5111 levels and beyond.

The PCR has increased to 1.50 levels and FIIs have been both buyers in equity and index futures to the tune of Rs. 400 crores each.

Looking at all this, it now points to a very strong bullish move before this series and it is also highly likely that the momentum could sustain to see a new high on charts for Nifty before this expiry.

There might also be a pull back move to threaten weak bulls at this stage and also to build more shorts before pushing Nifty to new highs. This points to more of a buy on dips right now.

Resistance levels : 5074, 5111, 5127

Support levels : 5035, 5010, 4980

Happy Trading