Friday, October 29, 2010
Bears were totally dominating the expiry week and on the expiry day after a strong bullish move for majority of the day, bears took complete control towards the fag end and pushed Nify below 6000 levels for a close near the support level of 5985.
Though there were large scale increase in open interest in 6000 puts and there was not much of an increase seen in 6000 calls, bears were still able to break 6000 levels. Markets were also ruling at a hefty premium throughout the month and one day before expiry also the premium was around 20 and the implied volatility in puts were around 19 when compared to the calls around 25 levels throughout the month.
Now that a new series has begun, there might be consolidation around 6000 levels and also a move towards 5885 levels later in the month after a break of 5954 levels and market is expected to bounce back.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
For a week the bearish move towards 6000 levels was written and the possibility suggested was that the move was to happen on the expiry day. Bears could do so one session earlier and pushed markets below 6000 levels to further test the support of 5985 and close the day above 6000 levels.
Options data saw huge increase in the OI of 6100 calls as well as 6000 puts and the PCR stays at 0.99 which is giving a neutral indication.
The expiry day can either stay neutral around 6009 levels or bears can further push markets down to test 5937 levels and also settle for a 5954 close. The possibility of Nifty testing higher levels looks very remote and might face strong resistance around 6032 level itself for the day.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Markets were confined to a tight range yesterday and faced stiff resistance around the key level of 6125 and closed for the day below 6100 at 6082.
The PCR at 0.91 is still favouring bears to a small extent and options data did not see major change in open interest in positions except in 6200 call which added another 7 lakhs and is ruling high at 83 lakhs.
Overall there could be a bullish move for the day and Nifty might even test levels of 6125, 6136 for the day before bears take control of tomorrow's expiry session and push it towards 6000 levels.
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Markets made an attempt to scale 6150 levels yesterday and bears pushed it down towards the end to close it near to 6100 levels.
Markets have been hovering around 6100 levels for the past three sessions. The PCR ratio is slightly getting skewed in favour of bears at 0.91. The open interest data saw accumulation in 6200 and 6300 calls as well as in near strike puts of 6200, 6100 and 6000. There was also heavy unwinding seen in 6000 calls of around 10 lakhs.
Overall markets might still sway around 6100 levels for two more sessions before bears take control on the expiry day and push it closer to 6000 levels.
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Nifty started on a week note last week and was trading below the 20 DMA for major part of the week. It closed the week on a neutral note at 6066.
The sharp recovery which was seen on Monday as well as Thursday has given a false bullish undertone and with premium ruling around 40 pts plus throughout the month has also strengthened the view for the bulls.
On friday, both 6100 calls and 6200 calls saw hefty activity with large accumulation of over 11 lakhs and 12 lakhs and 6200 call is having the highest OI for the month. On the other hand not much of activity was seen on the put side.
Overall it looks like bears might be able to push markets below 6000 mark and might even be able to break the 5962 barrier and go for a test of 5885 levels momentarily during the expiry week before Nifty can recover and trade closer to 6000 levels. 6125 has been established as a strong resistance and it is not expected for markets to move above that for this series.
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Friday, October 22, 2010
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Yesterday after a strong upmove towards the key resistance for the week of 6125, markets corrected significantly and closed for the day at 6027.
The range bound move between the levels of 6234 and 5932 is happening right now and there is a good possibility of Nifty to test the lower end of the band at 5932 before further bounce.
The PCR ratio is still neutral at 1.05 and options data is also not pointing to a skew towards any one side.
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Monday, October 18, 2010
Nifty last week was confined to a range and lost in the last two sessions of the week whatever was gained on wednesday. It closed the week at 6063 levels.
The PCR ratio is at 0.98 which is neutral and large increase in OI was seen in 6100, 6200 and 6300 calls as well as in 6000 puts.
Even if there is a break of 6000 levels for the week, market is likely to recover and move towards 6200 levels towards the expiry and might remain range bound.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Nifty has been hovering in a tight range for the past seven sessions and it is likely on any further correction, a sharp bounce till 6200 levels can happen.
The PCR is neutral at 1.04 and the implied volatility in calls and puts are equally poised around 18 levels indicating a range bound move.
The OI in 6000 calls has not increased and is much lesser when compared to the near strike puts and calls and it is unlikely for the markets to break the 6000 barrier below for this series.
How to trade?
A buy around 6050 levels for a target of 6200.
Friday, October 8, 2010
Nifty corrected significantly towards the end yesterday and closed near to 6110 levels after making multiple attempts to scale 6200 peak during the week.
The consolidation phase after the expiry week last week has continued throught out this week with markets remaining range bound.
A test of the crucial support of 6079 levels is possible for the day and even a close near to that and starting next week a strong momentum rally is expected especially in midcaps. There might be a momentary dip till 6036 levels which should be used for heavy accumulation. Nifty might still be hovering in a tight range for some time testing 6200 levels during early next week.
Options data is pointing to a range bound move with the implied volatility in both puts and calls remaining at 20 and the PCR is also neutral at 1.
A buy around 6079 levels is recommended for a target of 6200 levels.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Saturday, October 2, 2010
Friday, October 1, 2010
Markets were trading below 6000 levels for major part of the day yesterday and as suggested in the option trade of buying 5900 calls, the upmove came after 2.30pm and saw markets regaining all it lost the previous day to close above 6000 levels exactly at the last resistance of 6030.
Now that we have entered the new series, there might be consolidation and range bound moves between 5900 and 6160 levels for a while. Options data is seeing increase in 6000 puts and unwinding in 6000 calls suggesting that 6000 might act as a strong support level for a while.
At present the implied volatility of both puts and calls is around 20 suggesting range bound moves.