Monday, November 30, 2009

Back to 4950, 5050 game between bulls and bears

Nifty on friday corrected significantly intraday and bulls were then able to push it towards the end to reach almost 4950 levels. 

4950 has been mentioned as the level of consolidation and the expected momentum is likely to get established and push the markets further up in the short term.

Any break and close above 5050 on the upside will be the indicator of a strong up move and till that point in time, Nifty could also hover around 4865 - 5050 levels. 

A break and close below 4845 will bring in bearishness which is unlikely to happen in the short term.

Resistance levels : 5007, 5023, 5050

Support levels : 4924, 4896, 4865  

Happy Trading

Saturday, November 28, 2009

Update on all expiry views

December 2009
Predicted Move: BULLISH
Predicted Close: 5235
Actual Move: BULLISH
Actual Close: 5201
November 2009
Predicted Move: BULLISH
Predicted Close: 5159
Actual Move: BEARISH
Actual Close: 5006
October 2009
Predicted Move: BEARISH
Predicted Close: 4734
Actual Move: BEARISH
Actual Close: 4751
September 2009
Predicted Move: BULLISH
Predicted Close: 5020
Actual Move: BULLISH
Actual Close: 4987
August 2009
Predicted Move: BEARISH
Predicted Close: 4636
Actual Move: BULLISH
Actual Close: 4688
July 2009
Predicted Move: BULLISH
Predicted Close: 4560 or higher
Actual Move: BULLISH
Actual Close: 4571
June 2009
Expiry value updated in the comment section
Predicted Move: BEARISH
Predicted Close: 4337
Actual Move: BEARISH
Actual Close: 4242
May 2009
On vacation. Expiry view not available.
April 2009
Predicted Move: BULLISH
Predicted Close: Not clear
Actual Move: BULLISH
Actual Close: 3474
March 2009
Predicted Move: BULLISH
Predicted Close: 3075-3100
Actual Move: BULLISH
Actual Close: 3082

Friday, November 27, 2009

A totally bear dominated expiry and the beginning of a new series..What next?

Contrary to the expectation of bulls pushing Nifty to a new high and close for the expiry, it was the turn of bears that took complete control and pushed Nifty even to sub-5000 levels.

Now that a new series has begun, lot of pessimism has already set in. It still doesnt look like a straight fall from the levels that we have seen. Around 4885 levels, as mentioned earlier, should provide support and it is likely that markets will consolidate around 4950 levels for a final push towards a new high. The reasoning is again that there has not been widespread increase in volume and momentum has not yet kicked in.

It is better to wait and watch for a few more sessions before making any directional bet.

Resistance levels : 5023, 5050, 5066

Support levels : 4950, 4924, 4882

Happy Trading

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Monthly Chart - November 2009


A 5159 close ?! Will bulls be able to give the final push for the expiry ?!!

Yesterday's pattern almost looks like a mirror image of day before yesterday's pattern and Nifty also made attempt to test new high for the series and has also closed above 5100 levels for the second time in this series.

The PCR has increased to 1.33, denoting more activity on the put side yesterday than the calls and there was widespread unwinding seen in 5100 calls and also some accumulation in the 5100 puts. FIIs have bought index futures worth around 400 cr.

At the time of writing SGX Nifty is testing the crucial resistance of 5080 and has already set the bearish tone (falsely ?) for the day.

Given all this scenario, if the entire series is taken into consideration, bulls have established a strong upperhand and bears have been waiting for a strong pull back throughout this series. The undercurrent is still very much bullish and it is highly likely that bulls will take complete control towards the end of the session and can also push Nifty to a close around 5159 levels.

Resistance levels : 5121, 5138, 5159

Support levels : 5080, 5063, 5050

Happy Trading

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Another neutral day before bulls can charge for the expiry tomorrow ?!

Yesterday markets saw heightened intraday volatility and the key level of 5060 was broken twice before bulls took control again and pushed it higher.

There was a huge increase in the OI for 5100 puts, and there is also a slight increase in the OI for 5100 calls. Both 5000 put and call have shed OI. So does it all point to the action to revolve around 5100 more than 5000?

It is also being established (falsely?!) that 5100 is a tough nut to crack and may be today also there could be a neutral or even a bearish move to substantiate this theory and tomorrow it could be the turn of the bulls to charge and look for a close higher than 5100.

FIIs have been net sellers of 250 cr in index futures and net buyers of 100 cr in index options. This does not give any strong indication of the direction for these two days, but overall it could be the turn of bulls to push markets higher from whereever it is left today.

Resistance levels : 5111, 5127, 5140

Support levels : 5080, 5063, 5050

Happy Trading

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Markets to stay under the control of bulls with heightened volatility ?!

It was a decisive victory for the bulls yesterday and they were able to hold the markets above another key level of 5080 for almost the whole session right after an hour of trading.

The late entrant bears of friday and also the bears in the opening session of yesterday are all trapped and this could see the markets reaching a higher levels of 5127 or even 5140 amidst heightened intraday volatility, but it could also be difficult to sustain to these levels if the move happens and a doji close is also a possibility for the day.

A move below 5060 is not expected and it is still a buy if that happens for this series.
Overall, market is still under the control of bulls with a neutral view for the day.

The PCR is at 1.21, again due to the increase in the put activity yesterday. FIIs have been net buyers of 400 cr in index futures and 300 cr in index options. They have also sold stock futures worth 300 cr. Overall this points to bullishness, but need to wait for two more trading days before concluding if 5100 calls will expire in the money.

Resistance levels : 5127, 5140

Support levels : 5085, 5063  

Happy Trading

Monday, November 23, 2009

Bears completely trapped... Bulls to control the expiry and Nifty all set to move higher?!

Friday, it finally proved that the buy on dips strategy worked out well. The intraday pattern suggests that bears have been completely trapped and it is bulls who will decide this expiry move.

Now that the weak bulls have been thrown out of the system and also new shorts have been built, it is possible that during this week, markets can move up without much of retracement also and it is also possible to test the high of 5182 in the remaining four days triggered by short squeeze.

The PCR has come down to 1.10 and though this is neutral, there has been a wide spread activity in 5100 call on friday. FII data analysis seems mixed. They have been net sellers both in the equity as well as index futures on friday and have largely accumulated options worth around Rs. 800 crores. 

Overall it looks like an expiry controlled by bulls and we should wait for a couple of more sessions to ascertain on the call strike which would expiry in the money.

Resistance levels : 5079, 5111, 5127 

Support levels : 5045, 5024, 5007  

Happy Trading

Friday, November 20, 2009

A strong correction yesterday before the rally next week ?!

Yesterday's pull back, a very strong one has raised concerns on the overall rally and it is beginning to convince a major section of bears that the rally did not have any legs and could not sustain.

Also 5075 has been shown as a strong resistance which cannot be penetrated easily. 

In addition to this the PCR has also come down to 1.32 from 1.50 levels and there has been a large amount of unwinding seen in majority of the puts yesterday. FII's are net sellers of roughly 700 crores in index futures.

Does this all point to more of a correction coming in? Overall it doesnt seem so. The very fact that Nifty was pushed to levels beyond 4950 and having let it stay above that level for a longer period with lower volumes indicate that there is more upside to this rally and as of now it is again a buy on dips. Only on a break below 4885 would large sell off set in and it looks remote currently.

Resistance levels : 5007, 5024, 5045

Support levels : 4969, 4945, 4924

Happy Trading

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Bulls getting stronger !! Will they be able to push Nifty to a new high ?!!

Bulls are getting stronger on each consolidation and they are still holding the 5035 fort.

The resistance at 5074 level has been tested multiple times and any retest of that level will straight away push Nifty to 5111 levels and beyond.

The PCR has increased to 1.50 levels and FIIs have been both buyers in equity and index futures to the tune of Rs. 400 crores each.

Looking at all this, it now points to a very strong bullish move before this series and it is also highly likely that the momentum could sustain to see a new high on charts for Nifty before this expiry.

There might also be a pull back move to threaten weak bulls at this stage and also to build more shorts before pushing Nifty to new highs. This points to more of a buy on dips right now.

Resistance levels : 5074, 5111, 5127

Support levels : 5035, 5010, 4980

Happy Trading

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

A dragonfly doji and bulls charging towards the end...What next?

Yesterday's 'cat on the wall' situation has not changed much, except that the intraday pattern is now suggesting a bullish move, but then the PCR has come  to 1.22 from 1.41 which is giving a contrary sign of this rally to be cooling off.

There is unwinding seen in the near strike puts whereas calls have accumulated open interest.

Going by the pattern, there could be an attempt to scale 5111 levels if 5035 is not broken on the downside.

Resistance levels : 5074, 5111

Support levels : 5035, 5010

Happy Trading

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Cat on the wall situation...Should wait and watch...

Bulls pushed markets further and also showed strong strength to close above the key level of 5050. Bears doesnt seem to get a chance at all to pull the markets down and the way bulls are showing strength without a strong consolidation is also vulnerable for a strong correction anytime.

The volumes have been muted for each rise in the past few days. Markets straight away dashed into the overbought territory from oversold. All this points to the fact that it is a 'cat on the wall' situation and the best would be to stay out of the markets, till this settles.

Resistance levels : 5074, 5111

Support levels : 5011, 4980

Happy Trading

Monday, November 16, 2009

A move till 5050 and a strong battle of bulls and bears...Bears likely to take upperhand ?!

Nifty on friday did not move till the key level of 5045 and also closed stronger near 5000 levels.

Today it is likely to reach the key level of 5045 and bears should take upperhand from that level. An immediate retest of 4850 levels is also on the cards. If this consolidation extends for two more days and if 4850 is not in sight by tuesday's close, then there is a possibility of a strong bullish move which looks remote at this stage.

To reiterate, most of the indicators are pointing to bullishness with PCR also at 1.36, but the overall pattern suggests a strong pull back.

Resistance levels : 5018, 5031, 5045

Support levels : 4974, 4945, 4882

Happy Trading

Friday, November 13, 2009

Friday, the 13th. Will there be a strong correction this time ?!

Friday the 13th occurs when the thirteenth day of a month falls on Friday, which superstition holds to be a day of good or bad luck.

Twice during this year market has given a surprise bullish move on the day in february and march when it was mostly pessimistic at that time.

This time around, there are indications of strong correction today. FIIs have been net sellers of 700 crores in index futures as well as in stock futures. The near strike calls have all accumulated open interest and puts have shed open interest, which is also pointing to bearishness though the overall PCR still remains at 1.28.

Yesterday markets made multiple attempts above 5000 level, but could not sustain to it. Today also there might be attempts to scale 5010 and even 5045, but then it looks like markets might correct heavily from that level and can also reach 4850 levels

Resistance levels : 4980, 5011, 5045

Support levels : 4925, 4882, 4847

Happy Trading

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Markets in no mood to consolidate...Volatility expansion seen...What next?!

It was a great victory for the bulls to again conquer the 5000 mark and break the strong resistance of 4950 levels.

All the other indicators of bullishness won over the pattern theory, but then the volatility also seems to increase which makes it difficult to take positions either side. Certainly a consolidation here would give strength to the rally, but then it has not happened.

For quite sometime, 5050 had remained a key level, which was 50:50 in favour of the bulls and bears at one time. It looks like the maximum bulls can push Nifty is till 5050 level now, which also happens to be the 78.6% retracement on the fibonacci.

FIIs are still net buyers in the index futures and the PCR is still in favour of the bulls, but pattern will eventually catch up if no consolidation is seen and there will be a strong correction and it looks like a sell market near 5050 levels at this stage.

Resistance levels : 5031, 5045

Support levels : 4980, 4950

Happy Trading

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

4950 proved to be a hard resistance. Markets to consolidate at these levels ?!

Yesterday as suggested by patterns, markets were unable to crack the 4950 ceiling and pulled back though all other indicators were pointing to bullishness.

Now that 4950 has been established as a strong resistance, will markets consolidate around 4800 - 4950 levels for some time.

At this instance, it points to that and no clear trend is in sight. Only on a break of either of these levels would a trend emerge.

Resistance levels : 4907, 4924, 4945

Support levels : 4861, 4837, 4796

Happy Trading

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

4900 reached. Will it be able to break the 4950 ceiling ?!

Yesterday markets reached the target of 4900 levels and few days back, I had written that there will be a short term rally till 4950 which will act as a strong ceiling.

Looking at the PCR data (which stands at 1.36) and other indicators, market seems to be under the control of bulls with FIIs buying index futures worth around 600 crores.

There has been massive increase in OI in 4800 put and decrease in 4900 call which is also a bullish sign.

Given all this scenario, as per the pattern, Nifty has a strong resistance around 4950 levels. Eventhough all the other parameters point to bullishness, the resistance at 4945 level seems to be a tough ceiling to break and Nifty might pull back from that level.

Resistance levels : 4926, 4945

Support levels : 4867, 4837

Happy Trading

Monday, November 9, 2009

Bulls to charge further. A rally till 4900 levels in the immediate term ?!

Friday was again a highly volatile day and though bulls could not sustain to the high and push Nifty further to 4850 levels, the overall indicators have turned in favour of bulls and is pointing to a rally of 4908 levels in the immediate term.

The PCR has turned to 1.43, which indicates bullishness and FIIs have also been net buyers of 1300 crores in index futures. This indicates that many of 4700, 4600 puts have been written and could give rise to another leg of a bullish rally.

Resistance levels : 4837, 4867, 4908

Support levels : 4781, 4765, 4734

Happy Trading

Friday, November 6, 2009

Bulls won the volatile fight..To push markets higher ?!

Yesterday was a decisive day. Bears did conquer 4636 levels but were unable to break the 4606 barrier and then bulls took complete charge and pushed Nifty to further highs.
It was a highly volatile day and by forming a powerful bear trap around 4660 levels, bulls completely took control.
For the bulls, 4850 is a very strong resistance level and it is likely that markets will consolidate a while between 4660 and 4850 levels also before making the next major move.

Resistance levels : 4787, 4826, 4854

Support levels : 4734, 4720, 4660

Happy Trading

Thursday, November 5, 2009

A bullish change of guard with strong and subtle bear traps...Will it sustain ?!

The expected bullish move came yesterday and the move was equally powerful as the complete previous day's bear candle has been turned into a bull candle. This pattern generally, if it happens at market's low signifies a 'change of guard' and is a very powerful indicator of a bullish move.

On the way up, there has been a very powerful bear trap at 4636 levels and this will play a very crucial role going forward. At any point in time, if bears conquer this level and reach 4606 then markets will be totally under bear's grip for this entire series.

The PCR is now at 1.04, which is again neutral and for the strong up move seen yesterday, it is likely to test further high levels of 4788 and even 4810 levels. Sustaining to these levels is more important for the uptrend to continue and one should wait and watch to see if that happens or bears take control again at the end of the day.

Resistance levels : 4751, 4788, 4810

Support levels : 4665, 4636, 4606

Happy Trading

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

View remains the same.. Markets to give a bounce anytime...

It was a deep correction yesterday and markets have started to behave irrationally. The view remains the same.

There could be a strong bounce anytime, if not sustainable, atleast a powerful up move to throw out the late entrant weak bears at this stage.

There is no significant change in the PCR and it is at 0.94, which is almost neutral and does not indicate a deeper correction in the short term.

Overall the implied volatility has increased and it might take some more time for the markets to stabilize.

Resistance levels : 4610, 4653, 4680

Support levels : 4537, 4505, 4486

Happy Trading

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Getting into extremely oversold territory. Ready to bounce anytime ?!

Markets opened on a strong note, but succumbed to the selling pressure on friday and closed at a new low.
It looks like markets is getting into extremely oversold territory and might give a bounce to 4950 levels anytime in the near term.
There has been build up more on the call side and so markets might test further lows also before giving the expected bounce.

Resistance levels : 4741, 4772, 4796

Support levels : 4685, 4657, 4644

Happy Trading