Thursday, September 30, 2010

Monthly Chart - September 2010


An expiry close to 6000 levels for the September series...

Yesterday markets closed below 6000 levels for the first time in the expiry week.

Options data saw huge unwinding in 6100 puts as well as in 6000 puts with 6000 calls adding a huge open interest. The PCR at 1.19 though not heavily skewed indicates mild bullishness in the expiry day.

Overall in the last week, markets have been hovering around 6000 levels and for today it is expected to trade in a narrow range of 5975 to 6030 levels before settling for the day very close to 6000 levels for the September series.

Resistance levels : 6004, 6030

Support levels : 5981, 5975

-Happy Trading

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Market moving in a tight range in the expiry week

Yesterday markets consolidated after testing momentarily sub-6000 levels and closed flat at 6030 levels.

Options data is seeing some unwinding in 6000 and 6100 puts and increase in 6000 and 6100 calls to some extent.

All this points to neutral moves till the close of this series and any move one side will be nullified by an equal move on the other side.

Resistance levels : 6042, 6065

Support levels : 6014, 5981

-Happy Trading

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Markets hovering above 6000 levels...

Nifty made a new high for the series yesterday and towards the end of the session corrected from the high and closed at 6036 levels.

As indicated the put volatility was lesser when compared to calls which pulled Nifty lower yesterday. Currently there is significant increase in OI in 6000 calls and puts as well as in 6100 call and 5900 put, all indicating an expiry close to 6000 levels at this stage.

Resistance levels : 6042, 6065

Support levels : 6014, 5981

-Happy Trading

Monday, September 27, 2010

Weekly Update: Entering the expiry zone...An above 6000 close for the series

What the markets did last week ?
Last week the bull run continued and markets made a high of 6037 levels before settling at 6018 for the week, a 2.27% gain over the previous week.

It has been a continuous four week bull run and markets have entered the expiry week on a very strong note.

What does the options data indicate ?
The PCR as on friday was 1.38 indicating further bullish move. Currently option data is seeing an increase in OI in 6100 and 6000 puts with increase seen in 6100 calls.

What can be expected this week ?
Overall the implied volatility of puts have reduced and are trading lesser when compared to the near strike calls. This points to the fact that markets could reverse from the high levels and move towards 6000 levels sooner and as of now an above 6000 close at around 6014 levels is seen for this expiry this thursday.

Weekly Resistance levels : 6042, 6065, 6102

Weekly Support levels : 6014, 5981, 5946

-Happy Trading

Friday, September 24, 2010

Tight range and hovering around 6000 levels...

Yesterday markets scaled 6000 levels again before correcting and bouncing from the last support level of 5931 mentioned and closing for the day at 5960.

Options data saw slight increase in near strike calls and puts, with 5900 moving to an open interest of 95 lakhs.

Overall the same view is maintained as to markets will remain within the tight range and would go in for a closer to 6000 expiry for this series.

Resistance levels : 5981, 6014

Support levels : 5946, 5931

-Happy Trading

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Consolidation and range bound moves till this expiry

Markets corrected in the initial part of the session and regained towards the end and closed a shade below 6000 levels yesterday.

Options data is seeing heavy increase in both 6000 calls and puts with negligible action in 6100 puts and 5900 calls.

This points to a neutral move with 6000 as the pivot till the end of this series.

Any strong directional move is likely to be nullified by a equally strong move on the other side till this expiry and market is also likely to trade in a range of 5931 to 6065.

Resistance levels : 6014, 6042, 6065

Support levels : 5981, 5946, 5931

-Happy Trading

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Markets to consolidate after reaching new high...

Markets continued to make the non-stop run towards 6000 and also closed above that level for the day.

Options data saw increase in open interest in 6000, 6100 calls as well as in 5900 and 6000 puts. Very less activity was seen in 6100 put. This indicates that markets might consolidate around this level in a tight range for a while till the end of this series.

Resistance levels : 6014, 6042

Support levels : 5980, 5950

-Happy Trading

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Weekly Update: Markets reaching all extrapolated target levels

Nifty raced past last week's target of 5942 and made an attempt to scale 6000 peak.

The key level to watch out based on weekly charts is 6014 and Nifty might be able to scale it before consolidating in a tight range for this series.

A move beyond 6014 could trigger the final leg of strong momemtum buying along with short squeeze at this stage.

Options data is still seeing strong unwinding in all the near strike calls and 5900 and 6000 puts adding on to open interest.

It is not expected for the markets to correct below 5885 for this series.

Weekly resistance levels : 5990, 6014, 6042

Weekly support levels : 5942, 5902, 5885

-Happy Trading

Thursday, September 16, 2010

A consolidation before the next move towards the target of 5942

Nifty made another bullish move yesterday and for seven straight sessions had a higher close.

Options data saw increase in OI in 5800 and also 5900 puts. On the call side 6000 calls saw an increase in OI.

Overall it looks like markets will consolidate for a session or two at this level before it can reach the target of 5942.

Resistance levels : 5885, 5901

Support levels : 5845, 5828

-Happy Trading

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

NIFTY heading towards 5942 in the short term ...

Nifty made a high of 5838 levels yesterday before settling for the day just a shade below 5800 levels at 5796.

Overall, momentum has kicked in and it looks like Nifty is headed for 5942 levels in the short term before the close of this series.

Options data saw heavy unwinding in all near strike calls and 5700, 5800 puts added on to open interest. It looks like another round of short squeeze will be triggered till 5942 levels before Nifty can cool off.

Resistance levels : 5822, 5845, 5901

Support levels : 5776, 5742, 5701

-Happy Trading