Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Yesterday's session had a retest of the 20 DMA at 4439 and the moment that level was reached, NIFTY was pulled back almost to the previous close.
NF reached a level of 4447. So the level of 4450 has been established as a strong resistance once again and the view remains the same. Any move that can break 4450 levels will be extremely bullish from this point.
On the other hand a break of 4350 level on the downside, will push NIFTY further low to test 4314 levels which can then provide some support.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
It was a very strong up move in the first day of the new series. The trend seen was so strong and is pointing that this up move is going to continue.
In any case, earlier, 4450 has been established as a very strong resistance and in my opinion, that should not be easily broken on the upside. It is also the level where the 20 DMA has been residing for a while and would offer a good resistance.
If this market breaks 4450 on the upside and moves to 4490 levels, then the uptrend might continue. Any reversal from 4450 will bring in strong weakness.
Friday, June 26, 2009
This was the move that I was expecting for the past two days and that was the reason for my writing 'bears totally controlling the expiry and bearish view maintained' posts.
But I was expecting a severe move towards 4100 and a momentary touch of 4000 levels also and that did not happen though the overall pattern suggested bearishness. The fact that these levels were not breached, really questioned the very theory of bears controlling and I was expecting a close similar to that of the last expiry and in the end it was a clear 100 points down from that level.
What next is the big question now?
It is again in the wait and watch mode. Is this move just an expiry move or a genuine pull back needs to be ascertained before taking further positions.
In any case, I dont expect this market to go beyond 4450 in the short term and should retest 4000 levels soon. With this view, let us see how the market spans.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
It was a surprise move yesterday and the expected weakness was not seen in NIFTY.
NIFTY almost reached 4325 levels yesterday, what I thought was a very very remote possibility. It looks like it can break that level at open itself as sgx nifty is suggesting. not sure if it will have enough strength today to push it to 4450 levels.
A good expiry level would be 4337, same as that of last month.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
NIFTY was unable to move past 4275 level which was also established as a strong resistance in the previous session.
Though yesterday's move looks bullish, the undercurrent and the overall pattern suggests that this is going to be an expiry favouring bears and we are going to see new lows for the month in these two days and the close of tomorrow could also be the lowest close for the entire june series.
Having said this, though the possibility looks very very remote, any move beyond 4325 would bring in extreme bullishness and can push NIFTY to even 4450 levels.
I hold my view that we will see a break of 4100 levels and can even momentarily break 4000 levels before this expiry tomorrow.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
The bear trap made in the last 45 minutes on friday was totally nullified yesterday and it has proven the fact that, the move was only to throw away weak bears from the market.
Having said this, it is now expected that NIFTY can have three consequtive lower close into this expiry, reaching sub-4000 also. It seems like a possibility now.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Bears were made to run for cover in the last 45 minutes of trade on friday and the close was almost at the day's high. The short squeeze was so intense that the move happened so fast.
Now clearly all the late bears of the last two sessions are trapped heavily again and we are entering into the expiry week.
Does this mean we would only see a higher close from this point for the expiry?
I dont think so.
The intensity with which 4450 levels were broken on the downside earlier points to clear weakness and this friday move could also be to throw the late bears or weak bears out of the markets.
At this juncture, 4375 is going to act as a strong resistance and this level should not be crossed in the next three days for a lower expiry. Any break below 4251 and 4222 levels would impart weakness and will push NIFTY to test 4117 levels immediately.
Friday, June 19, 2009
Yesterday again markets moved in line with the expectation and closed in red. Could today also be another day where we will significantly close lower testing 4117 levels?
The patterns suggests so.
Any break of 4150 levels at this stage would immediately let NIFTY test 4117 levels which should act as a strong support.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
It was a victory for the bears and a great blow for the bulls yesterday as 4450 level was comfortably broken without even a slight bounce.
Pattern-wise also this move has turned completely bearish and 4438 is now a major resistance level and it is unlikely that NIFTY can move past that.
The five day pattern also denotes an extremely bearish move to follow and it is now clear that as long as 4450 is not reached, this is a sell on rise market.
The volatility seems to be increasing again and if at all there is another close above 4450, it is safe to sit on the sidelines and watch for sometime rather than trying to participate in the move.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Yesterday it was a clear up trend day inspite of all global weakness. NIFTY was showing very good strength during intraday and it looks like bulls have not yet given up.
Also in the intraday pattern a powerful bear trap is seen at 4450 levels and it is now very clear that as long as NIFTY is not going to break 4450, a new uptrend can begin.
This is also due to the fact that the 20 DMA has been retested and so the trend has cooled off a bit for it to gain momentum again.
Having said this, a clear break and close of 4450 levels at this stage will prove to be a winning move for the bears and can push NIFTY all the way to 4100 levels in the short term.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
The bears were just finding some reason or the other to pull the markets down and RIL, RNRL tussle outcome came at the right moment.
A close below 4430 right now, this market will be completely in bear grip and can move significantly down. This move will also make the test of 4700 levels look like a bull trap.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Though NIFTY reached a new range high last friday, it couldnt last longer and there was a pull back all the way to test the support levels of 4585.
The bullish undercurrent is also very much seen eventhough there has been a retracement. In any case 4550 should act as another strong support level and only on a break and close below that would impart further weakness to this move.
Till then there is always a chance of testing 4736, 4794 levels before this expiry.
Friday, June 12, 2009
Yesterday NIFTY got confined between the first resistance level of 4688 and the second support level of 4585 and became range bound.
Now it is clear that a one sided move is likely to happen if any of the above levels are broken and the probability of breaking on the up side remains high. The volumes were also low yesterday and should pick up today with the range breakout.
The key levels almost remain the same.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
The three day pattern indicates extreme bullishness and NIFTY moved in line with the expectation after the powerful piercining line pattern made in the previous session.
Any break of 4688, today will push NIFTY to test 4746 levels and at present the strong resistance level is at 4794.
4630 is a good support level and NIFTY is unlikely to break below that level for the upward move to continue.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
The way NIFTY moved all the way up after testing a few of the support levels and without looking back much, closing almost at day's high and significantly above the mid point of the previous bearish candle all indicate that some amount of momentum has been kicked in and NIFTY is likely to see higher levels.
Now that, the bears of yesterday have been completely trapped, NIFTY should slowly resume its journey towards 4750 levels.
Once the hurdle of 4630 is crossed, it becomes a cake walk.
Given this scenario, for NIFTY to resume its upward journey, it should not look back below 4487 levels from this point.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
The gravestone doji at the top and the fact that NIFTY was unable to move past 4611 yesterday proved to be a good enough confirmation for the reversal. It came as a clear downtrend day and even a small bounce at 4550 levels also did not happen.
It looks like NIFTY is all set to test 4340 levels and get some support there. If that is also broken, then the immediate level to test is 4276 which also happens to be the extrapolated 20 DMA levels for NIFTY.
On the upside, 4508 is a strong resistance level. If 4340 levels is not tested and NIFTY is moving up towards 4508, then it can be sell on rise with 4340 as the target. Only on a break above 4560, the uptrend can continue which looks remote as of now without testing 4340 levels.
Monday, June 8, 2009
NIFTY made a gravestone doji pattern last friday after reaching new range high and breaking the 4620 barrier and almost reaching the next resistance level of 4648.
Any break below 4528 will confirm the reversal at this stage and might take NIFTY further to 4340 levels.
4611 has been charted as a crucial resistance level and NIFTY should not move up this level for the reversal till 4340. A break of 4611 and a further break of 4648 will see NIFTY reaching 4800 levels. The only thing that is clear now is that this is a cat on the wall situation as it has been for the last five trading sessions.
Friday, June 5, 2009
Yesterday's move was very much inline with the prediction of being indecisive and for most of the morning session it was trading in red and turned green towards the end. This has kicked off a new momentum and the level of 4620 is likely to be breached at the open itself.
Any significant break of 4648 levels will bring in another round of short cover and can then push NIFTY to 4800 levels in the interim term.
The three day volume has remained low compared to what it was during the move from 4200 to 4500 levels and now it is a clear consolidation.
So today again a green close is expected, but what will unfold next week is unclear at the moment.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Another doji day and the doji is shrinking further with decreasing volume. It certainly is a sign of market participants waiting to take position and looking for further clues as to where this market is headed.
Looking at the global cues and SGX nifty, it looks like we are likely to open lower, but then will that be the start of the downtrend.
I dont think so.
It looks like there could be one more day of indecisiveness and a further day up before this market sees correction.
The present scenario is that both bulls and bears are not comfortable holding on to their positions and it is a clear tug of war equally poised.
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
The last one week has seen another significant rally after a powerful bull enfulf on 27th May, a day before the expiry of May series. This has continued further into and the continuous 4 day winning streak was stopped yesterday with a doji after testing the previous day's low.
The distance from the 20 DMA 4045 and the current close 4525 is quite significant (11%).
Though the 20 DMA is increasing rapidly 50 pts each day, this move is beginning to show signs of over extension.
There might be a retracement atleast till 4340 levels in the very near term. It might again be prudent to wait for a correction or retracement to near the 20 DMA before entering again.
Any break and close of 4620 levels at this stage could again see a hysteric up move.
No individual picks for the day.
Had a great vacation. Attaching snap of the breath taking view of Rohtang pass (Kulu-Manali).