Thursday, July 28, 2011

Nifty 28 Jul 2011 - Expiry Chart

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Nifty Monthly Chart - July 2011

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Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Nifty 27 Jul 2011

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A neutral close from here on...The expected strong down move came in yesterday...

The expectation of a range bound market and the markets hovering around 5600 levels for the series was being held, but then the magnitude of the range was lesser at each stage.

A bounce was expected earlier only after testing sub-5500 levels, which did not happen and markets started the up move from 5535 levels itself. Similar to that the strong down move was expected after testing 5734 levels, but that happened just after testing above 5700 levels.

Overall the view remains the same that it is going to be an expiry around 5604 levels, even if markets test further lows from this level for this session.

Click below image to get the OI and price info for the near strike options.

PCR is neutral at 0.97.

Resistance levels : 5604, 5631, 5670

Support levels : 5558, 5529, 5485

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Tuesday, July 26, 2011

A march towards 200 DMA and then a strong correction for expiry this thursday ?!

Bulls were able to charge and take markets towards 5700 levels before closing the day at the last resistance level of 5680.

The 200 DMA is at 5718 currently and it is highly likely that markets can test that level and also close above that for the next two sessions before a strong correction on thursday to close the series around the expected levels of 5604. The expectation that this month there will be range bound moves is still intact. The PCR is neutral at 0.99.

Click image below to get the near strike change in open interest and option prices

Resistance levels : 5706, 5715, 5734

Support levels : 5665, 5651, 5634

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Monday, July 25, 2011

Entering the expiry week. Markets to hover around 5600 levels ?!

After reaching 5645 levels on wednesday, markets corrected for two consecutive sessions and the expectation was that markets will move on to test sub-5500 levels on friday before a bounce.

But then markets gave a strong bounce on friday without testing 5500 levels and reached almost the range high of 5645.

Now that we have entered into the expiry week, the expectation is for the markets to remain range bound and hover around 5600 levels before closing the series around 5604 levels.

5600 and 5700 puts added 25 lakhs each on friday in OI and unwinding to that extent was seen in 5500 and 5600 calls. PCR stands at 0.93

Resistance levels : 5654, 5665, 5680

Support levels : 5626, 5604, 5585

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Friday, July 22, 2011

A bearish day to test 5500 levels inspite of the expected gap up?

Yesterday markets were confined in a small range almost between the first resistance and second support level of 5574 and 5529.

Today it looks like markets can open on a strong note as SGX nifty is indicating right now and move on to test the resistance level of 5592. Only on a move beyond 5611 levels will this turn to be a strong bullish move or else the expectation is that markets will resist around 5600 level and then correct significantly towards the later half of the session to test sub-5500 levels.

Overall the expectation is that markets will hover around 5600 levels and close the series near to that. 5600, 5700, 5800 calls OI stands more than 1 crore and that of 5500 puts around 1.15 crores. This suggest mostly a rangebound move till this expiry. PCR is neutral at 0.98
Resistance levels : 5558, 5574, 5592

Support levels : 5529, 5485, 5468

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Thursday, July 21, 2011

Down move started from range high. Should continue for another session or two ...

The range bound move happened yesterday itself where markets broke 5600 levels and gave a strong down move towards the middle of the session and closed at 5667 levels.

It looks like markets have made the high for the series and a move beyond 5654 levels is not expected before this expiry.

On the downside, a retest of 5485 and even a test of 5454 levels is expected before markets can give another bounce to close the series around 5605 levels.

OI increase in 5500, 5600 and 5700 calls was heavy yesterday and unwinding was seen in near strike puts though 5500 put OI is the highest at 1.1 crore. Both 5700 and 5800 call OI also crossed 1 crore mark.

Resistance levels : 5574, 5592, 5605

Support levels : 5558, 5529, 5485

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Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Markets still to remain range bound for the series after a strong gap up ?!

Yesterday markets were hovering in a tight range in the earlier half of the session, before giving a strong breakout moving past the last resistance level of 5610 and also closed above 5600 mark.

Today markets might trade the whole day above 5600 levels and is not expected to go beyond 5660 levels which might act as a strong resistance.

The view is that markets will remain range bound for the series and now that the up move has taken place first, there is a good chance of markets to fall back into the range and move on to test lower levels of 5500 in a couple of days before closing the series next week near to 5600 levels.

PCR remains at 0.91 still slightly favouring the bears and 5600 puts added 11 lakhs in OI yesterday. 5700 and 5800 calls remain above 90 lakh mark and 5500 put OI stands at 1.16 crore with an increase of around 9 lakh contracts yesterday.

Resistance levels : 5636, 5658, 5680

Support levels : 5610, 5592, 5574

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Tuesday, July 19, 2011

A move to test sub-5500 levels before a bounce back ?!

Yesterday was again a session which was tightly rangebound after testing the first resistance level of 5594. There was a sharp correction towards the end to test the support around 5550 levels before closing the day at 5567.

The PCR has gone down to 0.88 indicating that bears are gaining strength in the short term. The OI is above 90 lakhs for both 5600 and 5700 calls and above 1 crore mark for 5500 puts.

The view remains the same, nifty might break 5500 barrier in the short term before giving another bounce for this series.

Resistance levels : 5574, 5592, 5610

Support levels : 5551, 5542, 5494

-Happy Trading