Weekly Update: A cat on the wall situation for Nifty with bullish bias...

Nifty had a good run up last week, gaining whatever was lost the previous week and now has reached a neutral level from where it is likely to consolidate before another move.

Options data saw huge increase in OI in all the near strike puts. With PCR remaining at 1.26, overall markets is showing bullish bias.

The immediate resistance is around 6080 and on a break of that Nifty can move up to 6150 levels.

It is likely to hover in the range of 5885 to 6150.

Resistance levels : 6037, 6085, 6151

Support levels : 5961, 5921, 5885

Happy Trading

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Bulls pushed markets to an all time high close...Will it sustain ?

Nifty made a strong up move last week with a gain of 4.9% and closed the week above 6300 levels at an all time high close of 6312.

Pattern-wise bulls have established a strong upperhand after a consolidation of around 4 weeks in the range of 6000 to 6200 levels.

The build up in options data is increasing steadily with increase seen in both near strike puts and calls. 6500 calls and 6000 puts are ruling above 60 lakhs of OI.

The PCR value is 1.38 which is favouring the bulls to a good extent for another rally and implied volatility in near out of the money calls has reduced when compared to puts which again favours bulls to some extent.

The extrapolated target level for Nifty is 6366 and it is likely that markets can test the level in the near term. There might also be another strong up move beyond that based on how the options data turn out to be.

Resistance levels : 6335, 6366, 6421

Support levels : 6284, 6203, 6151

-Happy Trading

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Bears to gain control initially during the expiry week ...

Nifty started on a week note last week and was trading below the 20 DMA for major part of the week. It closed the week on a neutral note at 6066.

The sharp recovery which was seen on Monday as well as Thursday has given a false bullish undertone and with premium ruling around 40 pts plus throughout the month has also strengthened the view for the bulls.

On friday, both 6100 calls and 6200 calls saw hefty activity with large accumulation of over 11 lakhs and 12 lakhs and 6200 call is having the highest OI for the month. On the other hand not much of activity was seen on the put side.

Overall it looks like bears might be able to push markets below 6000 mark and might even be able to break the 5962 barrier and go for a test of 5885 levels momentarily during the expiry week before Nifty can recover and trade closer to 6000 levels. 6125 has been established as a strong resistance and it is not expected for markets to move above that for this series.

Resistance levels : 6071, 6095, 6125

Support levels : 6008, 5962, 5885

-Happy Trading

www.tripleint.com

Markets to remain range bound and move up in the week after any initial weakness

Nifty last week was confined to a range and lost in the last two sessions of the week whatever was gained on wednesday. It closed the week at 6063 levels.

The PCR ratio is at 0.98 which is neutral and large increase in OI was seen in 6100, 6200 and 6300 calls as well as in 6000 puts.

Even if there is a break of 6000 levels for the week, market is likely to recover and move towards 6200 levels towards the expiry and might remain range bound.

Resistance levels : 6125, 6177, 6223

Support levels : 6036, 6018, 5952

-Happy Trading

www.tripleint.com

Weekly Update: Entering the expiry zone...An above 6000 close for the series

What the markets did last week ?

Last week the bull run continued and markets made a high of 6037 levels before settling at 6018 for the week, a 2.27% gain over the previous week.

It has been a continuous four week bull run and markets have entered the expiry week on a very strong note.

What does the options data indicate ?
The PCR as on friday was 1.38 indicating further bullish move. Currently option data is seeing an increase in OI in 6100 and 6000 puts with increase seen in 6100 calls.

What can be expected this week ?

Overall the implied volatility of puts have reduced and are trading lesser when compared to the near strike calls. This points to the fact that markets could reverse from the high levels and move towards 6000 levels sooner and as of now an above 6000 close at around 6014 levels is seen for this expiry this thursday.

Weekly Resistance levels : 6042, 6065, 6102

Weekly Support levels : 6014, 5981, 5946

-Happy Trading

www.tripleint.com

Weekly Update: Markets reaching all extrapolated target levels

Nifty raced past last week's target of 5942 and made an attempt to scale 6000 peak.

The key level to watch out based on weekly charts is 6014 and Nifty might be able to scale it before consolidating in a tight range for this series.

A move beyond 6014 could trigger the final leg of strong momemtum buying along with short squeeze at this stage.

Options data is still seeing strong unwinding in all the near strike calls and 5900 and 6000 puts adding on to open interest.

It is not expected for the markets to correct below 5885 for this series.

Weekly resistance levels : 5990, 6014, 6042

Weekly support levels : 5942, 5902, 5885

-Happy Trading

www.tripleint.com

Weekly Update: Markets nearing the intermediate peak ...

What the markets did last week ?
Markets defied gravity last week and closed strongly at a high of 5640 levels.

What does the options data indicate ?

Options data is indicating a huge open interest in 5600 calls and puts as well as 5700 calls and 5500 puts and 5400 puts. The call implied volatility was low when compared to the puts at 9.

What can be expected this week ?

The markets have already opened the week on a strong note and have made a high of 5724 levels. Most of the key levels are pointing to a fair value of 5680 for Nifty and any move above that is an over extension and is likely to correct itself.

How to trade for the week?

Though options data is not pointing to a major correction, Nifty could swing between 5544 and 5752. (5739 is a good level to short Nifty) and is unlikely to correct below 5544 levels for this series and is expected to bounce back to 5680 levels on any further correction.

Weekly resistance levels : 5680, 5721, 5739, 5752

Weekly support levels : 5631, 5605, 5560, 5544

-Happy Trading

www.tripleint.com