Friday, April 30, 2010

Nifty 30 Apr 2010

- Happy Trading

Bull controlled expiry day and the beginning of new series...

The expiry day was controlled by bulls and though bulls were not able to completely engulf the previous bear session, they managed to close Nifty higher.

It is the beginning of the new series today and large accumulation is seen in 5200 puts as well as in 5300 calls and it would be too early to analyse the options data.

Resistance levels : 5266, 5285, 5306

Support levels : 5250, 5234, 5218

-Happy Trading

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Monthly Chart - April 2010


Bulls to charge back for the expiry...A close near 5300

In the penultimate session, bears completely dominated the markets and pushed it almost to a level below 5200 and closed very near to that.

As mentioned yesterday, any down move in that session will be equally nullified by bulls in the expiry session and it looks like bulls will charge back and push Nifty to a close of near 5300.

5200 puts reached more than 1 crore in open interest twice during the series and it looks like the strong hands which accumulated the puts the second time are out with heavy unwinding seen yesterday. 5300 puts also saw huge unwinding and the contrarian signal this is generating gives a view that Nifty can close almost near to 5300 levels for the April series.

Resistance levels : 5234, 5266, 5308

Support levels : 5202, 5185, 5165

-Happy Trading

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Weakness setting in penultimate session for expiry...

Yesterday bulls were unable to push markets again beyond the key resistance level of 5332 and markets closed near another key level of 5306.

The is unwinding seen in 5200, 5300 calls and some accumulation in 5300 puts yesterday. This is not a bearish sign and would infact point to some amount of bullishness. Pattern-wise also markets are showing bullish signs.

The view as of now is any down move of today will be equally compensated by an upmove tomorrow for the expiry.

Resistance levels : 5314, 5323, 5332

Support levels : 5304, 5285, 5250

-Happy Trading

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Range bound for another two days before the expiry move ...

Nifty had a continuous five day run up and was able to retest the crucial resistance level of 5332, but could not close above that level.

The accumulation in 5300 puts and 5400 calls is huge at this stage and both are well above the 70 lakh mark. It looks like there will not be any major move beyond 5300 and 5400 and is likely to fall back into that range if such move happens for this expiry.

Resistance levels : 5332, 5367, 5384

Support levels : 5316, 5304, 5285

-Happy Trading

Monday, April 26, 2010

Entering the expiry week. More of bullish than bearish...

Friday markets swayed a lot during intraday and in the end closed on a high note above 5300 as well as the 20 DMA.

Any move above 5332, would bring back the bullishness and it is more of bullish than bearish as we enter into the expiry zone.

The options data on friday saw accumulation of 5300 and 5200 puts and unwinding in 5400 calls, which is also suggesting bullishness.

The key levels to watch out for the week are resistances at 5354, 5406, 5440 and support at 5263, 5198, 5120.

The levels for today

Resistance levels : 5332, 5367, 5384

Support levels : 5285, 5269, 5238

-Happy Trading

Friday, April 23, 2010

A deciding trend day for the expiry ...

Yesterday markets saw heightened intraday volatility and also bulls pushed it to test the crucial level of 5332.

The 20 DMA is currently at 5290 and any move above that would bring back the bullishness now that weak bulls of yesterday are out.

Accumulation is seen in 5200 puts and unwinding in 5300 calls which also points to a good amount of bullishness setting in.

Any move above 5332 would trigger the next round of powerful short squeeze and would push markets to 5387 and 5406 levels in the near term.

Resistance levels : 5290, 5306, 5332

Support levels : 5250, 5221, 5206

-Happy Trading

Thursday, April 22, 2010

5234 as pivot, Nifty to sway either side...

Yesterday markets stayed above the previous close throughout the day, but was unable to test and break the barrier of 5287 on the upside.

With 5234 as the key level, where bulls and bears both placed traps during the whole of last week, markets continue to sway with level.

It looks like the range boundedness could continue for another session or so before a strong move happens. The key levels remain the same.

Resistance levels : 5257, 5287

Support levels : 5220, 5206

Happy Trading

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Range bound after testing the lower end of the band...

Yesterday the markets were again confined between a tight range and also closed at the place where there were bull and bear traps seen in earlier sessions.

After testing the lower end of the band, markets might make an attempt to reach the 20 DMA which is currently at 5287. The lower end is at 5182 and only on a break below that level would markets turn extremely bearish at this stage. Options data is suggesting a range bound move for a few sessions.

Resistance levels : 5257, 5287

Support levels : 5220, 5206

Happy Trading

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

A neutral day before the next big move...

Markets corrected significantly yesterday with a gap down and tested the lower end of the band and closed near the second support level of 5206.

The option data is still pointing to short term bearishness with 5300 puts witnessing huge unwinding of around 19Lakhs and 5200 calls adding on 18 Lakhs as open interest.

The lower end of the band has been tested and today there could be more of downside to test further support levels before markets can give a bounce in the later part of the session.

Resistance levels : 5206, 5220, 5250

Support levels : 5185, 5166, 5116

Happy Trading

Monday, April 19, 2010

More downside seen before another bounce...

After bears took control and closed Nifty below its 20 DMA on thursday, friday again saw heightened intraday volatility with sudden up and down spikes.

The options data is pointing to more bearishness as there was heavy unwinding of more than 10 Lakhs seen in 5300 put.

The PCR ratio based on the open interest is still bullish with 1.36 and looking at the overall data, there could be more downside seen immediately before markets can give another bounce.

In the weekly charts, a bearish reversal pattern has been formed and any move and close above 5354 this week would nullify the bearishness. The key support are 5198, 5134 and 5092, with resistance at 5354, 5406 and 5446

The key levels for today are

Resistance levels : 5274, 5286, 5306

Support levels : 5225, 5206, 5187

Happy Trading

Friday, April 16, 2010

Bears took control and pushed markets below key support...

Contrary to the view yesterday, when markets opened gap up above the previous session high where bulls were in upperhand, it became a strong turning point day in which bears completely dominated the markets.

5332 level mentioned yesterday proved to be a point where there is also a strong bull trap seen before markets were brought down.

The build up in 5300 put and 5400 call, being huge was suggesting a larger range for the markets from 5285 to 5406 with wild swings during intraday. The 20 DMA currently is at 5286 levels which bears have conquered yesterday.

Large unwinding is seen in 5300 puts which became 'in the money' after 8 sessions which is pointing to some more downside. It is better to wait and watch for two more sessions before concluding on the short term trend.

Resistance levels : 5286, 5306, 5332

Support levels : 5249, 5225, 5206

Happy Trading

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Momentum rally to kick in...

Markets have opened today on a very strong note and is trading near the previous session high.

It looks like there could be a momentum rally kicking in soon as most of the bears of the last session have been caught on the wrong foot and 5332 level should act as a very strong support level for today.

There is heavy build up seen in 5300 put and it is likely that markets might move on to test the key levels of 5406.

The intraday support and resistance levels as of now are

Resistance levels : 5387, 5406

Support levels : 5352, 5332

Happy Trading

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Range expansion with heightened intraday volatility seen

Yesterday markets moved in a narrow range with intraday volatility increasing.

The option data has made a 'U' turn with 5400 calls increasing in OI by 16 lakhs and reaching 87 lakhs and unwinding seen in 5200 and 5400 put with 5300 put adding a small amount to the open interest.

This is pointing to the fact that the intraday volatility is going to be heavy moving forward with sudden positive and negative spikes and the range of the day also is likely to expand.

Bulls are having upperhand as long as 5285 level is not broken on the downside on a closing basis. The wild swing is expected between the levels of 5285 and 5406 going forward.

Resistance levels : 5367, 5384, 5406

Support levels : 5335, 5302, 5285

Happy Trading

Monday, April 12, 2010

An upmove to test 5440 levels and a correction thereafter this week ...

Nifty did fall back into the range on friday and bulls are back in control though could not push markets to a point of engulfing the previous bearish day.

With 5300 put OI growing to 93 Lakhs, 5200 put growing to 97 lakhs and 5400 call seeing some unwinding, OI ruling at 71 Lakhs, it gives an indication that bulls will be able to break the 5400 barrier and move on to test 5440 levels early this week.

We have already seen 9 consecutive weekly gains. The put options are expected to change from weak hands to strong hands once the target of 5440 is reached and a correction is expected in the later part of the week .

The levels to watch out for the week are

Resistance levels : 5406, 5440 and Support levels : 5302, 5285, 5206

The key levels to watch out for the day are

Resistance levels : 5384, 5406, 5440

Support levels : 5355, 5335, 5302

Happy Trading

Friday, April 9, 2010

Markets to fall back into range again...

Yesterday NIFTY was completely dominated by bears and bulls were unable to bring in any bounce during intraday.

Also 5300 puts saw a little bit of unwinding and 5400 calls added 7 lakhs as openinterest which is denoting some amount of weakness. But the overall PCR ratio is still very much in favour of bulls and it is likely that markets will remain range bound for a few more sessions between the levels of 5283 and 5386 with bulls ultimately pushing it beyond 5400 at one point in the short term.

Resistance levels : 5325, 5350

Support levels : 5296, 5283

Happy Trading

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Range bound with bullish bias...

For the past two sessions markets were range bound with the intraday volatility remaining high with strong moves on one side equally nullified by another strong move on the otherside.

This is due to the strong build up in both the 5300 put as well as the 5400 call. The end of the day data for yesterday saw unwinding in 5400 call and adding of another 10 lakhs to 5300 put.

This is imparting some amount of bullishness though the attempt to scale 5400 levels by bulls failed yesterday.

There are no indications as of now for this markets to correct heavily and it is still a buy at each support.

Resistance levels : 5387, 5406, 5440

Support levels : 5363, 5341, 5328

Happy Trading

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Markets to move in a tight range with increased intraday volatility

After closing at a high in the previous session markets cooled off a bit yesterday and formed a short doji.

The open interest in 5300 puts and 5400 calls increased by a large number and is around 65 lakhs.
This is pointing to some consolidation between this range, before the next strong move happens.

This could bring in heightened intraday volatility with a small end of the day range between 5328 and 5386, with bulls attempting to break 5386 and test 5406 levels also.

Resistance levels : 5374, 5387, 5406

Support levels : 5363, 5341, 5328

Happy Trading

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Short term target of 5370 achieved... Markets to cool off...

Bulls were strong right from the beginning of yesterday's session and pushed markets towards our short term target of 5370 and also closed near that.

The build up in the 5200 put served as an indication for the short term rally.

It looks like markets can attempt to scale 5400 levels before further correction sets in. As of now the call build up in 5400 strike is ruling high at 62 lakhs and is indicating a strong resistance as of now. The historic volatility has dipped to its low and is likely that volatility will start increasing going forward from now on.

Resistance levels : 5387, 5406, 5440

Support levels : 5360, 5341, 5328

Happy Trading

Monday, April 5, 2010

View remains the same...Bulls to push markets up in the short term ...

Markets on friday broke the key resistance level of 5283 and closed above that.

The view remains the same and markets are set to test the short term target of 5370 levels.

The build up of 67 lakhs OI in 5200 puts also is suggesting a bullish move in the near term.

Resistance levels : 5296, 5311, 5336

Support levels : 5283, 5266, 5243

Happy Trading

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Bulls to further push markets up in short term...

Yesterday markets were range bound and ended the financial year consolidating for the last three sessions.

Bulls are still strong and are likely to push the markets up in the remaining session this week and early next week with a target of 5370.

The build up in 5200 puts has crossed 61 lakhs and is likely to act as a strong support during the initial sessions of April.

Resistance levels : 5269, 5283, 5296

Support levels : 5243, 5225, 5206

Happy Trading