Bears completely trapped... Bulls to control the expiry and Nifty all set to move higher?!

Friday, it finally proved that the buy on dips strategy worked out well. The intraday pattern suggests that bears have been completely trapped and it is bulls who will decide this expiry move.

Now that the weak bulls have been thrown out of the system and also new shorts have been built, it is possible that during this week, markets can move up without much of retracement also and it is also possible to test the high of 5182 in the remaining four days triggered by short squeeze.

The PCR has come down to 1.10 and though this is neutral, there has been a wide spread activity in 5100 call on friday. FII data analysis seems mixed. They have been net sellers both in the equity as well as index futures on friday and have largely accumulated options worth around Rs. 800 crores. 

Overall it looks like an expiry controlled by bulls and we should wait for a couple of more sessions to ascertain on the call strike which would expiry in the money.

Resistance levels : 5079, 5111, 5127 

Support levels : 5045, 5024, 5007  

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Happy Trading
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A strong correction yesterday before the rally next week ?!

Yesterday's pull back, a very strong one has raised concerns on the overall rally and it is beginning to convince a major section of bears that the rally did not have any legs and could not sustain.

Also 5075 has been shown as a strong resistance which cannot be penetrated easily. 

In addition to this the PCR has also come down to 1.32 from 1.50 levels and there has been a large amount of unwinding seen in majority of the puts yesterday. FII's are net sellers of roughly 700 crores in index futures.

Does this all point to more of a correction coming in? Overall it doesnt seem so. The very fact that Nifty was pushed to levels beyond 4950 and having let it stay above that level for a longer period with lower volumes indicate that there is more upside to this rally and as of now it is again a buy on dips. Only on a break below 4885 would large sell off set in and it looks remote currently.

Resistance levels : 5007, 5024, 5045

Support levels : 4969, 4945, 4924

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

Bulls getting stronger !! Will they be able to push Nifty to a new high ?!!

Bulls are getting stronger on each consolidation and they are still holding the 5035 fort.

The resistance at 5074 level has been tested multiple times and any retest of that level will straight away push Nifty to 5111 levels and beyond.

The PCR has increased to 1.50 levels and FIIs have been both buyers in equity and index futures to the tune of Rs. 400 crores each.

Looking at all this, it now points to a very strong bullish move before this series and it is also highly likely that the momentum could sustain to see a new high on charts for Nifty before this expiry.

There might also be a pull back move to threaten weak bulls at this stage and also to build more shorts before pushing Nifty to new highs. This points to more of a buy on dips right now.

Resistance levels : 5074, 5111, 5127

Support levels : 5035, 5010, 4980

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

A dragonfly doji and bulls charging towards the end...What next?

Yesterday's 'cat on the wall' situation has not changed much, except that the intraday pattern is now suggesting a bullish move, but then the PCR has come  to 1.22 from 1.41 which is giving a contrary sign of this rally to be cooling off.

There is unwinding seen in the near strike puts whereas calls have accumulated open interest.

Going by the pattern, there could be an attempt to scale 5111 levels if 5035 is not broken on the downside.

Resistance levels : 5074, 5111

Support levels : 5035, 5010

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

Cat on the wall situation...Should wait and watch...

Bulls pushed markets further and also showed strong strength to close above the key level of 5050. Bears doesnt seem to get a chance at all to pull the markets down and the way bulls are showing strength without a strong consolidation is also vulnerable for a strong correction anytime.

The volumes have been muted for each rise in the past few days. Markets straight away dashed into the overbought territory from oversold. All this points to the fact that it is a 'cat on the wall' situation and the best would be to stay out of the markets, till this settles.

Resistance levels : 5074, 5111

Support levels : 5011, 4980

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

A move till 5050 and a strong battle of bulls and bears...Bears likely to take upperhand ?!

Nifty on friday did not move till the key level of 5045 and also closed stronger near 5000 levels.

Today it is likely to reach the key level of 5045 and bears should take upperhand from that level. An immediate retest of 4850 levels is also on the cards. If this consolidation extends for two more days and if 4850 is not in sight by tuesday's close, then there is a possibility of a strong bullish move which looks remote at this stage.

To reiterate, most of the indicators are pointing to bullishness with PCR also at 1.36, but the overall pattern suggests a strong pull back.

Resistance levels : 5018, 5031, 5045

Support levels : 4974, 4945, 4882

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

Friday, the 13th. Will there be a strong correction this time ?!

Friday the 13th occurs when the thirteenth day of a month falls on Friday, which superstition holds to be a day of good or bad luck.

Twice during this year market has given a surprise bullish move on the day in february and march when it was mostly pessimistic at that time.

This time around, there are indications of strong correction today. FIIs have been net sellers of 700 crores in index futures as well as in stock futures. The near strike calls have all accumulated open interest and puts have shed open interest, which is also pointing to bearishness though the overall PCR still remains at 1.28.

Yesterday markets made multiple attempts above 5000 level, but could not sustain to it. Today also there might be attempts to scale 5010 and even 5045, but then it looks like markets might correct heavily from that level and can also reach 4850 levels

Resistance levels : 4980, 5011, 5045

Support levels : 4925, 4882, 4847

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

Markets in no mood to consolidate...Volatility expansion seen...What next?!

It was a great victory for the bulls to again conquer the 5000 mark and break the strong resistance of 4950 levels.

All the other indicators of bullishness won over the pattern theory, but then the volatility also seems to increase which makes it difficult to take positions either side. Certainly a consolidation here would give strength to the rally, but then it has not happened.

For quite sometime, 5050 had remained a key level, which was 50:50 in favour of the bulls and bears at one time. It looks like the maximum bulls can push Nifty is till 5050 level now, which also happens to be the 78.6% retracement on the fibonacci.

FIIs are still net buyers in the index futures and the PCR is still in favour of the bulls, but pattern will eventually catch up if no consolidation is seen and there will be a strong correction and it looks like a sell market near 5050 levels at this stage.

Resistance levels : 5031, 5045

Support levels : 4980, 4950

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

4950 proved to be a hard resistance. Markets to consolidate at these levels ?!

Yesterday as suggested by patterns, markets were unable to crack the 4950 ceiling and pulled back though all other indicators were pointing to bullishness.

Now that 4950 has been established as a strong resistance, will markets consolidate around 4800 - 4950 levels for some time.

At this instance, it points to that and no clear trend is in sight. Only on a break of either of these levels would a trend emerge.

Resistance levels : 4907, 4924, 4945

Support levels : 4861, 4837, 4796

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

4900 reached. Will it be able to break the 4950 ceiling ?!

Yesterday markets reached the target of 4900 levels and few days back, I had written that there will be a short term rally till 4950 which will act as a strong ceiling.

Looking at the PCR data (which stands at 1.36) and other indicators, market seems to be under the control of bulls with FIIs buying index futures worth around 600 crores.

There has been massive increase in OI in 4800 put and decrease in 4900 call which is also a bullish sign.

Given all this scenario, as per the pattern, Nifty has a strong resistance around 4950 levels. Eventhough all the other parameters point to bullishness, the resistance at 4945 level seems to be a tough ceiling to break and Nifty might pull back from that level.

Resistance levels : 4926, 4945

Support levels : 4867, 4837

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com