Is 2950 a possible target for March expiry ??

Today NIFTY made a surprise start and went past its 50 DMA level of 2804 with ease. For most of the session, it was trading above that level. The expectation was that NIFTY would reach its next resistance level of 2845 and ultimately 2868 levels. Also expected a great deal of short squeeze to happen if NIFTY stayed above 2810 levels. But the surprising move of the day, (surprise for me, atleast) was that there was no short squeeze, but only shorts were getting added towards the end. This was indicated by the fact that the discount was widening when NIFTY was falling from 2835 levels. NIFTY also tested its almost opening price of 2795 and even went below that level before closing almost at its 50 DMA which currently is at 2801.
Is this move bearish ? or
Is this to shrug off weak bulls? or
Is this to bring in more shorts so that the squeeze further will be exciting?

In my view, the five day pattern indicates a bullish move, which should push NIFTY to further highs, expectation being the bullish move to continue for two more sessions atleast till friday. Though 2868 is a good resistance level, the undercurrent can push it further towards 2900 levels and may be also to 2950 levels before this expiry next thursday?

The deciding day is tomorrow, the 19th trade. NIFTY should not weaken to test 2734 levels and if that happens and subsequently 2686 level is broken on the downside, then the entire bullish stance will get reversed. Even if NIFTY stays range bound for couple of days between its 50 and 20 DMA, there is a good possibility of a breakout on the upperside early next week.

So let us wait and watch. The view remains bullish...

Chart courtesy: nseindia.com
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