Friday, September 4, 2009

Consolidation phase...About to retest the 20 DMA and bounce ?!


The triple top resistance at 4650 levels of the previous session proved to be a strong level to break and Nifty made a few attempts again yesterday, but failed.

Overall, though it is slowly setting the bearish undertone, testing each support level silently, the strongest support level of the 20 DMA is flat and is ruling at 4557.

There might be a move to test that support level and market is likely to bounce back from that level, rather than to crack below that.

The view remains neutral and range bound as mentioned in earlier posts and Nifty to hover between 4650 and 4550 levels and only on a break and close of 4537 will impart bearishness.

The put implied volatility (IV) is ruling around 41% and the call IV is at 29%. So people are willing to pay a hefty premium for puts in anticipation of the fall and calls are being written much cheaper. A bounce to correct this anamoly after retesting the 20 DMA level might happen soon.

Resistance levels : 4610, 4636, 4650

Support levels : 4580, 4557, 4537

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